Todd Gurley is currently RB10 in ADP. If I’m in that league, that ain’t happening. Gurley was clocked in at 21 mph in practice the other day. I am pretty sure he may have some bad arthritis that may have caught up with him due to volume last season. But even if they manage his workload and he gets a fraction of the touches, he will finish as a top 10 RB, and probably top 5. Be that guy who takes advantage of the scared people, and then handcuff him just in case if you want. Malcolm Brown seems like the favorite, but I think John Kelly is probably more talented. Read up right before your draft.
The public consensus seems a bit low on Marlon Mack. Of course, the uncertainty surrounding Andrew Luck is hurting any Colts player’s draft stock, but Mack’s year two proved he can be a full-time back behind their elite offensive line. Obviously having Luck would be a huge help, but either way, Marlon Mack should succeed behind it. The good news is his value should stand even with Nyheim Hines likely coming in for frequent third-down opportunities. He was a top 20 RB last season and missed a quarter of the season. At the end of the day, he will likely still beat his ADP of 18 even if there is an extended absence for Luck, and the offense he is in alone gives him top 10 upside if he does come back. The talent doesn’t hurt either.
Alvin Kamara is a freak of nature whose elite efficiency requires some time off the field. Simple as that. He could be the RB1 this season, but that is not going to stop Latavius Murray from having some serious value in New Orleans. The Saints have relied on a more run-heavy offense as Drew Brees has aged. Just two years ago, this offense produced two top 10 backs in Kamara and Mark Ingram. I’m not saying that is going to happen again, but I’m not going to say it is impossible either. Murray is great on the goal line, so there is some legit potential here for 10 touchdowns as a backup and a solid amount of touches. I expect him to beat his ADP of 28.
This one is primarily for PPR purposes. James White is legit. I know Patriots RB’s scare people off, but Tom Brady needs James White. Many may fade White now that Josh Gordon has been reinstated, but there is actually a way bigger correlation between tight ends and runningbacks rather than wide receivers. We saw James White take away a huge target share from Gronk as he faded to more of a blocking role, and he ended up with 87 receptions on 123 targets. He accounted for 12 total TD’s on top of that. Now the tight ends on the roster are Ben Watson, Matt Lacosse, Stephen Anderson, Lance Kendricks, Eric Saubert, Ryan Izzo. and Andrew Beck. Do the math. Sony Michel’s knee has also been a documented problem, though they do have Damien Harris in the mix now as well.
This is more of a sleeper I guess you could say, and definitely a speculative option. But if Melvin Gordon’s situation is not resolved by the time your draft rolls around, go steal Justin Jackson while all the suckers go for Austin Ekeler. That is not to say Ekeler is not talented, but he does not seem like an every-down back to me. Yes, he has a career 5.32 YPC. In games he rushes more than 10 times, he has averaged 8.85 YPC, and he has only gotten more than 20 touches in a game twice. Meanwhile, Justin Jackson showed flashes of excellence in his rookie season and was a four-year workhorse at Northwestern who had a nose for the endzone and caught 44 balls as a senior. It may take a few weeks, but if Melvin is out, my money is on Justin, and he’s basically free unless we hear more news.