Good football teams win games, but great teams cover is a saying that will soon be etched into Canton with the NFL’s newfound obsession with gambling. The league wouldn’t be caught dead associating itself with Vegas some odd years ago, but now, you’d be hard-pressed to turn on any game on any network that wasn’t shoving odds down your throat. If the league can make money off it, you can bet your bottom dollar the NFL will find a way to incorporate it. And lucky for those gambling Falcons fans, Atlanta continues to be one of the most profitable teams against the spread in 2022.
Following the Giants loss to the Cowboys on Monday Night Football, there are only three teams that are 3-0 ATS through Week 3 — the Falcons, Dolphins, and Lions.
In the season opener at home, the Falcons opened as 3.5-point underdogs against the Saints, but the public quickly bet that up to 5.5 points. If you follow the site, you know I have been heavy on the Falcons since Week 1, especially against New Orleans. We all know how that one turned out — Atlanta easily covered and should’ve won outright.
In Week 2, the Falcons were even bigger underdogs against the Rams, who opened as 10.5-point favorites in Los Angeles. The defending Super Bowl champions were coming off an embarrassing loss to the Bills in the NFL’s season opener and had a significant rest advantage. Sometimes in this league, it’s not about who you play but when you play them. And this was shaping up to be a total beatdown by the Rams. For most of the game, LA dominated Atlanta, at one point leading 28-3 (sigh). However, the Feisty Falcons fought all the way back to cover but blew the potential comeback when Marcus Mariota frustratingly threw a jump ball that Jalen Ramsey picked off in the endzone.
And last Sunday in Seattle, the Atlanta Falcons opened as 1.5-point underdogs. The Seahawks entered as slight favorites at Lumen Field; “Home of the 12th Man” has been notoriously difficult for opposing teams to visit, but oddsmakers saw the Falcons as the better team on a neutral field. And they looked like it.
Neither defense showed up that afternoon. But if it weren’t for an untimely turnover from Marcus Mariota and Tyler Allgeier on a botched read option exchange, the Falcons would’ve walked their way to their first victory of the season. Thankfully, Grady Jarrett and Richie Grant sealed the win with a third-down sack and fourth-down interception, giving the Falcons their third cover of the season.
The Atlanta Falcons host the Browns in Week 4 at Mercedes Benz Stadium as 2.5-point underdogs. Cleveland has the best rushing attack in the league, and Atlanta’s defense has been suspect for much of the 2022 season, but you know where my money will be… ON THE BIRDS!
Photographer: Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire