For the last month or so, I’ve done a weekly piece on the Braves playoff odds, according to FanGraphs. This will be the last edition as we enter the most pivotal week of the season for both teams. The Braves open the week with a three-game set against Washington while the Mets play the Marlins.
Trailing by 1.5 games in the division, it’s vital Atlanta takes care of business against the Nationals by way of a sweep, setting up the series of the year at Truist Park against the Mets. If there is still something to play for, the Braves end the season with a three-game set against the Marlins, and the Mets will wrap things up against the Nationals.
With only nine games left for the Braves and eight for the Mets, New York should be viewed as the clear favorite. They’ve held off the Braves all season and deservedly own a 1.5-game cushion as well as the tiebreaker for now. That could change, but Atlanta would have to sweep New York later this week.
FanGraphs agrees. They’ve been high on the Mets all season, and they view them as significant favorites to take the division crown away from the Braves. Entering Monday, they give New York a 79.2% of winning the NL East, putting the Braves at 20.8%.
FanGraphs also loves the Mets as a World Series contender, giving them a remarkable 17.3% chance to win a title for the first time since 1986. The Braves, on the other hand, are listed at 8.7%.
While I agree with the Mets being favorites for the division title, I don’t believe the World Series odds should be so tilted in favor of New York. The Braves have experience, and we’ve seen teams succeed in October from all over the place. Records go out the window come the postseason, and gaining some momentum in the Wild Card series can oftentimes be beneficial. The Braves have been among the best teams in baseball, and whether they win the division or not, they have put themselves in a great position to repeat.
Photo: Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire