College Football Gambling Locks: Week 9

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Turner Skehan (14-9-1)

Preamble: Let’s see the trees from the forest… we have been hot, but college football can be humbling. My goal is simple: keep building. 

TCU vs. Texas over 58.5

I think Texas is the pick here at -1 if you are looking to get into it, but the public is so heavy on UT I got scared and jumped into the o/u. This game features two top 40 offenses (16/39) and one embarrassing defense (Texas, 118th nationally). TCU’s defense has been stellar save for…. THE ONLY TWO RANKED TEAMS THEY PLAYED. Iowa State and SMU dropped a collective 90 points on the Horned Frogs, and I expect Texas to drop 35+. It isn’t tough to imagine this game rubbing up on 58, so I’ll take the over.

ASU (-2.5) vs. UCLA

If Chip Kelly is going to win me over, it will take more than an upset win. I need to see him repeat. Needless to say, I don’t expect he will. With ASU giving less than a field goal, I don’t need to think much. Outside of the drubbing last week at the hands of Utah, ASU has played quality ball. Herm Edwards’ D isn’t one to give up free yards, and they are +5 in turnover margin on the year. UCLA is 114th in total D and has a negative turnover margin. ASU isn’t great on third down, which scares me a little, but I’ll still give the points and take the Sun Devils.

Texas Tech (-4) vs. Kansas

Texas Tech has played three top 25 teams and, outside of Oklahoma, has kept the games close. Kansas played Texas super tight (who is hugely overrated- or was) and is playing much better ball under Miles. That said, a program that is used to getting the doors blown off plays a highly emotional game against Texas and loses – I’ll take let down for 100. Let’s face it – you’d rather go to Lawrence to play football than basketball.

FAU (-14) vs. ODU

FAU has the most talent in their league and a coach whose character may be questionable, but whose coaching intellect is not. I expect Kiffin to roll ODU. ODU is 1-6, and although they’ve lost some close games, forgive me if I’m not impressed. Kiffin can score, and I expect him too.

Chase Irle (12-14-1)

Texas A&M (-10) vs. Mississippi State

Things have gotten progressively worse for Joe Morehead at Mississippi State, and I don’t see them getting better this week. They played up to LSU for a half and kept it close at home. I don’t see them having that same energy this week against an A&M team that’s attempting to gain some momentum. I like the Aggies -10.

Penn State (-6) at Michigan State

Michigan State’s not a very good football team. This is a prototypical letdown spot for Penn State, coming off a big win with games against Minnesota and Ohio State looming, but I still think they can beat Sparty by a touchdown.

Northwestern (+10) vs. Iowa

Northwestern tends to make games scrappy – even though they are 1-5. Iowa’s offense hasn’t impressed anyone. I like the Wildcats to cover the spread at home against the Hawkeyes.

Arizona (-1) at Stanford

Only bet this if K.J. Costello is ruled out. Right now, he’s listed as questionable. I’m going to go out on a limb and say he will not play. If that happens, Stanford is a team you are going to want to fade. They got blasted last week at home on Thursday night against a dreadful UCLA team.

Arizona State (-2.5) at UCLA

Don’t fall for the bait – UCLA is still trash. Fade them!

Harrison Coburn (12-15)

Auburn (+11) at LSU

I expect LSU to win, but this is the best defense they’ve played, and there is no way LSU isn’t peaking ahead to Alabama in two weeks – at least a little bit. Auburn should be playing with their backs against the wall, knowing they cannot afford another loss. I like them to cover eleven points.

Texas (-1.5) at TCU

Texas isn’t as good as we thought, especially after all the injuries, but they are getting too good of a line here to pass up. Maybe TCU can pull off the upset, but I’ll take Elhinger against a lesser team in a toss-up all day for my money.

Virginia (-3.5) at Louisville

By now, you should know how fond I am of Virginia. They have paid off pretty well for me, and I’m betting them again this week as they travel to Louisville as slight favorites.

Jake Gordon (10-14)

Alabama (-18 first half) vs. Arkansas

Don’t sleep on Alabama just because they don’t have Tua. Mac Jones is serviceable, this is a home game at night, and he’ll have a week to prepare as the starter. Bama is going to roll early in this one.

Appalachian State (-26) at South Alabama 

Still sleeping on App State? Wake up, people.

Georgia Southern (14.5) vs. New Mexico State

This is a little love for my alma mater here. They are due to cover a game (1-5 ATS on the year), and New Mexico State (0-7 on the year) is the perfect opportunity for them to make it happen.

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