College Football Week 6 Lookahead

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With the Week 6 College Football slate just a few days away, let’s take a look at some games for this weekend to see what the professionals are betting so far.

The Big Games

Georgia (-14.5) @ Auburn

The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry. It seems like no matter how good or bad Auburn is playing, going in to Jordan-Hare is a challenge. This line opened in Vegas at around Georgia -15 and has since dropped a half point despite a large amount of the public betting on Georgia. The total sits at 46 right now, and I have a hard time seeing how these teams combine for that many. This will make the fourth straight trip to Auburn where Georgia is a favorite, with the Dawgs going 2-1 ATS in their last three visits.

Oklahoma (-3.5) vs Texas

College Gameday will be hosting their show from The Red River Rivalry in Dallas this weekend in what is a crucial Big 12 clash. This line opened at Oklahoma -5 and the public bets flooded in on Texas almost immediately. However, I’m leaning towards laying the points with the Sooners due to the sheer number of expert bets coming in on Oklahoma. This is the 13th straight meeting between these teams where Oklahoma is favored, with Texas last being favored over the Sooners back in 2009. In that span, OU has been favored by 3.5 points or less only three times, going 3-0 ATS and SU in those games. The total currently sits at 63.5. There might not be a ton of points for a game that is usually pretty high scoring.

Notre Dame (-1) @ Virginia Tech

Notre Dame travels to Blacksburg looking to bounce back from a home loss last weekend. This line opened at Notre Dame -3.5, and it didn’t take long for the Vegas experts to jump on the Hokies, dropping the line 2.5 points in the process. It looks like around 69% of the bets so far are coming in on the Irish to cover, while 62% of all money is on the Hokies. The total currently sits at 47. Notre Dame has not lost a game as a road favorite since November 2017. This includes a 45-23 win at Virginia Tech in October 2018, with the Irish a 6.5-point favorite in that game.

Alabama (-17.5) @ Texas A&M

This night time, SEC West showdown at Kyle Field saw the Crimson Tide open as 14.5-point favorites last weekend, with a total of 51.5. As the week has gone along, there have been a few experts but mainly a ton of public money on the Tide, which has moved this line three points. So far, it appears that a whopping 94% of public bets are on Alabama to cover. Since these teams started playing annually back in 2012, there have been five meetings where Alabama has been a 17.5-point favorite or higher. The Tide are 3-2 ATS in those five games and won all five.

Iowa (-2.5) vs Penn State

What an interesting game we have in Iowa City this weekend. Which one of these teams can take a huge step in possibly making the playoff? The line opened at Iowa -1.5, and given Iowa’s tough defense, it’s clear to see why the total is so low at 41.5. It appears the public is pretty split here, almost 50/50 on either team. There is a case to be made to take the under, not only because of the defenses, but also because of the wind, which should be around 20 mph. Since 2000, Iowa is 6-6-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less. Penn State is 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a road favorite against the Big Ten.

Under The Radar

Wake Forest (-6.5) @ Syracuse

Wake Forest squeaked by Louisville last week to remain undefeated, while Cuse suffered a narrow loss at Florida State. Around 80% of public bets are on Wake Forest here, so it seems the people believe the Deacs can pull out another cover. The experts think differently, however, and have piled on Syracuse since this line opened at Wake Forest -11. Syracuse has one of the better pass defenses in the conference and can slow down this high tempo Wake offense. Since the beginning of the 2018 season, Wake Forest is 1-5-1 ATS as a road favorite.

Tennessee (-10.5) vs South Carolina

The line for this weekend’s game in Knoxville opened at Tennessee -12 and has moved down due to the presence of expert bettors who have bet the Gamecocks. The public likes the Vols so far, with about 83% of public bets laying the points. It appears there is also some expert money on the over at 56. I followed the experts and bet the Gamecocks when this line came out because I think there is a bit of an overreaction to Tennessee’s big win at Missouri last week. The last time the Vols were a home favorite of 10.5 points or more against a Power Five team was in November 2019, when they failed to cover as a 23.5-point favorite against Vanderbilt.

Ohio State (-21) vs Maryland

This line has not moved at all since its opening, even though there have been some experts who have hopped on the Terrapins catching three touchdowns. It’s early in the week, but Ohio State is one of the most publicly bet teams right now, with about 85% of public bets. It also looks like there could be some action on the over, which opened at 68 and now sits at 70. Since 2015, there have been four games where Ohio State has been -21 or greater against Maryland. Ohio State is 3-1 ATS and 4-0 SU in those games.

Michigan (-3) @ Nebraska

The Wolverines travel to Lincoln and look to continue their undefeated season. This line opened at -4.5 and has crept down a point and a half. I actually bet Michigan -1.5 in this game a few weeks ago when I saw the line out. Michigan is getting a ton of public bets, while the experts are liking Nebraska. I will probably play Nebraska moneyline to hedge my other bet in this game. The total sits at 52, which looks like a lot for a Big Ten game. Nebraska has covered their last two games as a home underdog in Big Ten play.

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