The Falcons will travel west to Arlington as astonishingly large betting underdogs in a matchup against America’s Team. Atlanta is coming off an emotional win over their division rivals; the Saints were touchdown favorites, and the Falcons won outright. The Cowboys are coming off a thrashing from Denver, who were big underdogs; Dallas will undoubtedly be hungry for redemption, which is why the spread is so large — anywhere from 8.5 to 9.5-point favorites, depending on the outlet.
Point spread: -9
Moneyline: Cowboys -400; Falcons +320
Total scoring over/under: 55
Dan Quinn will be facing his former team after getting crushed by the Broncos last week. Dak Prescott was quiet outside of two garbage-time drives — 19-for-39 passing for 232 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. While Matt Ryan is coming off his best performance of the season — 23-for-30 passing for a season-high 343 yards.
The Falcons will certainly be outmatched on paper at several key positions, most glaringly in the trenches. Given the lack of pressure the defensive front has generated this season, Atlanta will be at a significant disadvantage on defense. I would generally point to this area of a game that will be the deciding factor, but the Falcons may have an advantage — coaching.
Kellen Moore is an up-and-coming offensive mind, but Mike McCarthy is still out of his league. Arthur Smith may have blundered a few calls, but he’s been head and shoulders better than McCarthy with a significantly worse roster. The Falcons can come out of Jerry World victorious if they out-scheme the Cowboys.