Falcons vs. Buccaneers Week 13: Betting spread, odds, and predictions

The Falcons will host the division-leading Buccaneers on Sunday in Mercedes-Benz Stadium for their second matchup of the season as Tampa Bay took the first by a score of 48-25. The Falcons will look to beat a Tom Brady-led team for the first time in franchise history, while the Bucs will look to sweep Atlanta in consecutive seasons for the first time since joining the division.

Since the first matchup this year, the Falcons offense and defense have had up and down performances. Calvin Ridley is no longer with the team as he takes time away from football to handle his mental well-being. The offense has struggled, and Cordarrelle Patterson has been the only real bright spot. Todd Bowles shouldn’t have a too difficult time containing Patterson and Kyle Pitts with the defense at his disposal. Stopping the Falcons rushing attack with the front seven and keeping two safeties deep should keep Arthur Smith’s offense mostly in check. The group held Jonathan Taylor to 81 yards on the ground, which might not necessarily seem like a W, but it is when you’re playing the league-leading rusher.

On the contrary, the Falcons defense has less talent to stop a more potent offense as Byron Leftwich has Rob Gronkowski, O.J. Howard, Cameron Brate, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Leonard Fournette, and Ronald Jones at his disposal. The Falcons will have to play a much better game than they did in Week 2 because the Bucs are hot and playing much better football than they were at the beginning of the season. Oddsmakers don’t see that happening, though.

Spread:

Bucs: -10.5 (-110); Falcons: +10.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

Bucs: -500; Falcons: +400

Total:

50.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

These numbers mean that Vegas essentially sees Tampa as two touchdown favorites if it were on a neutral field, which shouldn’t really matter in this case as Atlanta’s stadium attendance has disappointed. I think the Bucs eventually cover, even if it is at the end of the game, but the Over is what’s really intriguing to me; check out these trends.

• The OVER is 5-0 in the Buccaneers’ last five games at Atlanta.
• The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven games between these two teams.
• Tampa Bay has seen six of its 11 games go OVER the point total.
• Tampa Bay’s games have had more than 50.5 points scored on six occasions this season.
• There have been five Atlanta games (out of 11) that went over the total this year.
• Atlanta games have had over 50.5 points four times this season.