midseason projections has Falcons winning NFC South

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Entering the season, the Falcons were predicted by many to be runner-ups in the NFC South. Vegas, analysts, and fans thought it was the Saints’ division to lose because of Derek Carr.

As I stated before the season and will continue to preach, Carr is no world-beater and will eventually wear out his welcome in New Orleans because Pete Carmichael is a terrible offensive coordinator. Carr needs talent and a good system to be a productive quarterback. The Saints have talent but don’t have the system.

The Falcons aren’t going to run away with the division by any means because they have their fair share of problems at the quarterback position. However, they do hold an edge right now by being 2-0 in the division, while the Saints sit at 1-1.

Moreover, the Falcons have a bye week right before they host the Saints in Week 12, so there’s no reason they shouldn’t win that contest in Atlanta. I’m not the only one either. Cynthia Freland of believes the Falcons are the favorites to take the division. 

  • Over/under Wins: 8.5
  • Make Playoffs: -162
  • Win Division: +135
  • Win Conference: +3200
  • Win Super Bowl: +7500

The Falcons edge out the Saints for the division title due to having zero games left in which their current win probability is less than 45%. The Saints, on the other hand, still have a date with the Lions — a Week 13 matchup in which they currently forecast to win in less than 45% of simulations. The two teams still face off twice — in Weeks 12 and 18 — so there’s certainly potential for a change here. How Atlanta handles the QB position — Taylor Heinicke was named the starter this week, replacing Desmond Ridder — will also heavily impact a potential playoff run.

Taylor Heinicke doesn’t have to be an All-Pro for the Falcons to win the division; he just has do what Desmond Ridder couldn’t — get the ball in the hands of his playmakers and protect the football.
The Falcons have the weapons and defense to be a playoff team. Quarterback play and Arthur Smith have been the most significant things holding them back. Only time will tell if the change at signal caller will net more consistent results, but they have to be considered the favorites as they sit atop the NFC South right now.
Photographer: Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire
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