NFL Playoff Picture: What happens if the Falcons win/lose on Sunday?

NFL: SEP 29 Saints at Falcons

The Falcons found themselves in unfamiliar territory a month ago, all alone atop the NFC South, three games above .500 with a 6-3 record.

In the three seasons prior, even in the weakest division in football, it never seemed like a foregone conclusion the club would make the postseason. It felt like that in Atlanta a month ago, but the world has a strange way of always reminding you of who you are.

Over the last month, the Falcons have lost three straight, including a route in Denver and an outing against the Chargers in which Kirk Cousins threw four interceptions. It’s knocked the team to 6-6 and in a tie for first place with the Buccaneers.

Of course, the Falcons own the tiebreaker over the Bucs, but it doesn’t feel good. With five games left, there’s a lot on the line for Raheem Morris. While Todd Bowles goes for his third division title in as many years, Morris is looking to establish himself in Atlanta (and also not blow a huge lead).

According to NFL.com’s playoff probabilities, the Falcons have a 58% chance of a postseason berth entering Week 14. With a win over the Vikings, that chance increases to 75%, but a loss drops it to 48%. That’s a near 30% swing and is a clear indicator of how important this Sunday’s contest in Minnesota is for the Falcons.

The Raiders loom in Week 15, with the Giants, Commanders, and Panthers rounding out the final three weeks of the season. It’s an easy stretch, but if the Falcons fall this weekend, they might not control their own destiny.

Photographer: Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire

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