On Friday, the Hawks lottery odds were finalized. We already knew their pick would be fifth in the order. That gives them a 42.1% of landing in the top four and an outside shot (10.5%) of winning the Zion Williamson sweepstakes. What we didn’t know is where the Mavericks pick would land.
Dallas finished with a 33-49 record, tied with the Pelicans and Grizzlies for the seventh-worst mark in the league. The three will split the odds of receiving the #1 pick (6%) and finishing in the top four (26.3%). However, the NBA decided the tiebreakers on Friday if none of them land in the top four. The Pelicans won the seventh spot, the Grizzles eighth, and the Mavs ninth.
That means the highest pick the Hawks can receive from the Mavs is ninth. If it lands in the top four, Dallas will keep the pick and Atlanta will own Dallas’ pick in 2020. With that in mind, here are the odds of the Hawks picking in each spot.
Hawks new lottery odds by pick (remember this includes the pick they already own and the pick they could possibly get from Dallas):
1st 10.5%
2nd 10.5%
3rd 10.5%
4th 10.5%
5th 2.2%
6th 19.6%
7th 26.7%
8th 8.8%
9th 47.0%
10th 24.3%
11th 2.9%
12th 0.1%
13th 0.1%— Mike Conti (@MikeConti929) April 12, 2019
As you can see, even though the Hawks are in the fifth spot, it is among the least likely places they will be picking. Their pick is most likely to finish 6th, 7th or in the top four. The Mavericks pick has the best chance of landing in the 9th and 10th spot, where it would go to Atlanta, or a 26.3% chance to fall in the top four, where it would not. The lottery takes place on May 14th.