The Falcons have had a tumultuous season as they sit two games under .500, but that’s still two more wins than they had all of last year. Atlanta sits at 6-8 with three games remaining, which seems like a productive first season under the new regime from far away. However, statistics show the Falcons may be one of the worst teams in league history to win six games.
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The 6-8 Falcons have the worst point differential in the NFC. Worse than the 2-11-1 Lions, 4-10 Giants or 4-9 Bears.
— Michael David Smith (@MichaelDavSmith) December 20, 2021
Obviously, winning is at the forefront of the Falcons’ minds; the offseason begins after the season’s final whistle for many inside in the building. With three games to go, fans are only natural to start exploring offseason roster possibilities with Atlanta all but eliminated from postseason contention. Don’t worry, Arthur Smith & Co.; the Falcons faithful will handle all of the team’s dilemmas, which there are many. Seriously though, on the outside, the Falcons seem to have several difficult decisions to make once the season concludes.
Contracts of Jake Matthews, Matt Ryan, Grady Jarrett, and Deion Jones will all likely garner attention this offseason. Matthews is a reliable presence at a position where it has been a rarity this year, so of these candidates, his contract is the most likely to be untouched. However, they could restructure Matthews’s contract and save around $6 million against the cap.
Jarrett is under contract for 2022, but his cap hit is the second-most on the team’s cap sheet. Terry Fontenot could always leave Jarrett’s contract alone as he did this past offseason. Still, I think it is more likely Fontenot extends or restructures his contract, which should free up considerable cap room. Being one of their only premier trade chips, Fontenot could absolutely trade Jarrett and save $16 million against the cap as well; however, the way the staff praises the veteran interior defender, I think that is unlikely.
It is unclear how the coaching staff views Deion Jones’ performance this year, but he’s significantly underachieving to many. In Dean Pees’ scheme, Jones has been tasked to defend the run more in a downhill manner, which is somewhere he’s always struggled. There is a chance the Falcons trade Jones and save $9 million, but I think Fontenot will likely leave his contract alone in hopes he can grow in Pees’ system.
Then, there’s Matt Ryan’s bloated contract. At this point, he shouldn’t be extended; Ryan hasn’t shown any sign that he’s not deteriorating, but that doesn’t mean he can’t still be a productive player in the league. The Falcons can max restructure his contract and save $11 million, but that figure could rise if they add void years — something many franchises around the league have done.
Fontenot could trade Ryan with a post-June 1st designation and save a ton of money, but a team would rarely be quarterback-needy that late in the offseason. I don’t think it is impossible to find a trade partner willing to wait to satisfy the Falcons’ desires, but it is improbable, barring some catastrophic injury.
The decision-making doesn’t end there. Atlanta will have to decide whether or not they want to bring back any of the in-house free agents — Cordarrelle Patterson, Foyesade Oluokun, and Younghoe Koo, who will all garner significant attention on the open market.
Patterson may certainly price himself out of Atlanta, but with reports suggesting he chose the Falcons over the 49ers and his sentiments about wanting to stay in Atlanta, I think the staff will make a strong push to get him back on a multi-year deal. Oluokun is playing better football than Jones to this point, but he might elect to test the free agent market. The Falcons could probably afford an $8-9 million per year deal with Oluokun, but anything over that, they should let him walk. Koo has to be a priority. Good teams don’t go cheap at a premium position like placekicker.
In reality, most of these aren’t “difficult” decisions. I’m sure facets of the front office have a rough outline of what to do in the 2022 offseason. They are just tricky for fans to decipher because opinions vary, so it appears polarizing.
It seems likely to me Fontenot will restructure the contracts of Matthews and Ryan while likely adding void years to the latter’s deal. Then they’ll explore trade opportunities for Debo; if they could get a team to offer a fourth-round pick while taking on the entire contract, similar to the Julio Jones trade, the front office would take it. If not, he’ll be back in Atlanta. The Falcons have the luxury of Mykal Walker ready to step in for either linebacker, whichever way the Falcons decide to go with Foye and Debo. I think they’ll bring back two of Patterson, Oluokun, and Koo; the only truly challenging decision is what to do with Grady Jarrett — extend or trade.
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