Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers odds: NFL Week 5 point spread, money line, point totals

This is the fifth matchup between these teams since Tom Brady has taken over in Tampa. Brady and the Bucs have dominated the Falcons in recent seasons, winning the last the contests by at least two possessions. And to make matters worse, Atlanta hasn’t covered ATS in Raymond James Stadium with Brady under center. However, there is only one team 4-0 ATS this season — the Atlanta Falcons.

In the season opener at home, Atlanta opened as 3.5-point underdogs against the Saints, but the public quickly bet that up to 5.5 points. Never mind covering, the good guys should’ve won outright. In Week 2, the Falcons were even bigger underdogs against the Rams, who opened as 10.5-point favorites in Los Angeles. Atlanta had a noble comeback but fell short (still covered, though). And two weeks ago in Seattle, the Atlanta Falcons opened as 1.5-point underdogs and won outright. Against the Browns on Sunday, the Falcons opened as 2.5-point home underdogs… and won outright. 

If you’ve been following along this season, you know I’ve been riding with the Falcons week in and week out. And this is the first time I’m not confident. Nine points is a whole lot to cover, and if we’re lucky, the casuals should bet this up to -10. I’d wait until right before game time to see what the line does and bet accordingly.

The Falcons have remained competitive in each of their contests this year, but the Tampa defense presents an entirely new challenge. They’re elite and moving the ball on the ground won’t be nearly as easy as it was against Seattle and Cleveland. Thankfully, Brady and the Bucs’ offense have struggled out of the gate. If anything, I’d expect this to go under 48.5 points.