The Falcons 2023 campaign was supposed to be a culmination of the pieces of success from the prior two seasons; it’s been a major disappointment.
In Arthur Smith’s first season, the pass game was one of the more productive in the league with Matt Ryan under center. Then with a less reliable Marcus Mariota at quarterback, Smith tailored the offense to his skill set and put together one of the best rushing attacks in football last year.
2023 was supposed to be the best of both worlds with Bijan Robinson and Desmond Ridder in the fold. On top of the offense putting it all together, Terry Fontenot went out and completely overhauled the defensive side of the ball through free agency.
With an improved defense and a more balanced offense, the NFC South was the goal. A loss to the worst team in football has effectively ruined any chance of the Falcons ending their postseason drought.
To say it was a frustrating season might be an understatement, but it’s exactly how Bill Barnwell of ESPN characterized Atlanta’s 2023.
The problem: Imagine if the Golden State Warriors ran their offense through Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli instead of the Splash Brothers.
As far as roster-building philosophies went, the Falcons chose a fascinating, virtually unprecedented path. No NFL team has ever had a homegrown top-10 pick at running back, wide receiver and tight end on the roster at the same time. Atlanta did that with consecutive picks in three straight drafts, taking Kyle Pitts in the first round in 2021 and following up with Drake London in 2022 and Bijan Robinson in 2023. With the Falcons moving on from quarterback Matt Ryan and finally rebuilding the defense over the past couple of seasons, the hope has been that the offense would run through the three new playmakers.
It hasn’t happened. The move from Ryan to Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder last season pushed the Falcons into one of the league’s most run-heavy offenses. Pitts and London posted great route-by-route rates but rarely saw enough volume to justify expectations. They had used two top-10 picks on receivers and then decided to stop throwing the football.
This season has been a little better, but Atlanta’s offensive scheme too often looks like the coaching equivalent of a trick-shot video. Pitts blocks while Jonnu Smith leaks out for a big play. London runs the clear out route to free up an opportunity for Mack Hollins. London and Pitts have had three catches or fewer in 17 of their 29 combined opportunities this season. They’ve been targeted 10 times or more on three occasions.
Robinson was supposed to be the exception, the back whose irrepressible talent and unique skill set would make him the focal point of the Atlanta offense. That hasn’t really happened, either. He hasn’t had a consistent path to usage and is too often removed from the lineup near the goal line. It would be one thing to chalk that up to coach Arthur Smith protecting his young back from a heavy usage rate, but Robinson was called upon to take a carry late in a game against the Bucs when he had otherwise been sidelined by an illness because it represented “situational football.”
The post-draft comments suggesting Robinson would be used as something more than a running back have turned out to mostly be bunk. He has lined up in the backfield on 78% of his snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He has lined up in the slot or outside 138 times; those plays have produced 12 catches for 83 yards, almost all on screens. Among players with at least 100 routes on the outside or in the slot this season, his 0.4 yards per route run ranks 168th out of 201 players. Robinson has been little more than a decoy in that role.
All of this would be fine if the offense was working, which it did for most of the 2022 season, when the Falcons ranked 11th in expected points added (EPA) per play on offense. They rank 24th by the same metric this season. Smith gaslit the fans criticizing Ridder by reducing any complaints to “toxic groupthink” from fans who don’t watch film, then followed suit by benching the sophomore starter after he returned from an injury the following week. Smith restored Ridder to the lineup, then benched him again for Taylor Heinicke in December. With the defense playing at a playoff-caliber level, Smith’s antics and refusal to focus the offense around the franchise’s most highly touted players has grown exhausting.
There’s been so many disappointing facets of this team. The Falcons finally play their most complete game of the season against the Colts, EXCEPT THEY LOST TO THE PANTHERS THE WEEK BEFORE. Typical for this club, too little too late.
I still think most of the Falcons shortcomings, offensively at least, are due to Desmond Ridder and not Arthur Smith. Hopefully, a new quarterback in 2024 will be the difference.
—
Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire
You must log in to post a comment.