College Football Gambling Locks: Week 4

cfm1909131061 georgia vs arkstate

Chase Irle (3-5-1)

Georgia (-14) vs. Notre Dame

Fading Notre Dame versus playoff-caliber teams has been a very profitable strategy, and I don’t see any reason that changes this week between the hedges. I see the Bulldogs running at will with their unbelievable stable of backs behind one of the best offensive lines in the country, and when called upon, we know Jake Fromm can make big-time plays. I see this one getting out of hand early, and Georgia rolls to win over the Irish.

Tulane (-5) vs. Houston

Houston comes off as overrated to me after watching them twice this season. Meanwhile, I love me some Tulane Green Wave. The Cougars have to head down to New Orleans on a short week after a tough loss against a Power 5 opponent, and the public is all over them. I think Tulane is the better team, and they should roll at home on Thursday night.

Michigan (+3.5) at Wisconsin 

This is one of those lines that has seen a ridiculous amount of movement since it opened. The Wolverines opened as a 5.5-point road favorite and are now 3.5-point underdogs. Michigan hasn’t been impressive, but I still think they are the better team, and this feels like a must-win for Harbaugh. Add in the fact that I believe points are going to be challenging to come by for both teams, and I will take the 3.5 points and sleep happy before Saturday


Jake Gordon (4-5)

Utah (-3) v USC

I’m a Utah believer right now. I think they have a legit shot at running the table, winning the Pac-12 and representing them in the playoffs for the first time in four years. Does Clay Helton get canned after this game? Possibly so. Utah big (on Friday night).

Louisville (+6.5) v Florida State

Louisville has been a much-improved squad since Scott Satterfield took over. Why the hell would I bet on Florida State to cover against anyone right now, much less against an ACC opponent? They suck.

Washington State (-18) v UCLA

I wanted to pick Tennessee to cover against Florida, but I would feel so stupid if that one didn’t hit. Instead, I’ll finish up picking on college football’s three biggest underachievers and take the fighting Mike Leaches to bust UCLA in Pullman. They are god awful.


Harrison Coburn (3-6)

Washington State (-18) vs. UCLA

Stealing one of Jake’s because I need the extra help and this is an easy one. UCLA has been a joke under “player’s coach” Chip Kelly. On the flip side, Washington State and Anthony Gordon are still yet to have a three-and-out this season. UCLA has no chance.

Washington (-6.5) vs. BYU

BYU has been a nice little surprise upset team, but I am going with Washington behind QB Jacob Eason. They are a much better team so take advantage of the recency bias.

Auburn (+3.5) vs. Texas A&M

I feel that this is about as even a match up as they come. Texas A&M is coming off a demoralizing loss despite playing at home. I’m taking the team with the points.

Turner Skehan (4-5)

Preamble: *Exhales* you are probably just here to fade me, and as a betting man, I respect that. After starting 3-0, the last two weeks have been a bloodbath. No one has more pent up acrimony for backdoor covers and bad beats than I, but if you hang in there, I promise (hope) this week will be the beginning of an upturn.

 Georgia State (+3.0) vs. Texas State

Georgia State beat Tennessee. In doing so, they proved they can score on a (quasi-) SEC defense. Yes, they got pummeled last week by Western Michigan, but that was a mismatch. Lets’ not be a prisoner to the moment – Georgia State can score. Western Michigan was a good team (with their only loss coming to Michigan State). I don’t care that they lost by 47 – if you can beat a team by 20, you can beat them by 50. Georgia State has a solid QB in Ellington and a solid running attack. Their defense scares me a bit, but Texas State turns the ball over too much, and barely averages over 1 yard per carry. Give me Georgia State.

Wisconsin (-3.5) vs. Michigan

Trust your instincts. Wisconsin is the better team. They are playing at Camp Randall. They are the best third-down offense in the country. They have a suffocating defense. They are the least penalized team in the country. Michigan is still struggling to find offensive consistency. They don’t have a very good o-line. Patterson is nothing better than so-so; they are minus in the turnover margin for the year (-2). As far as I can tell the only thing UofM has going for it is desperation. Harbaugh has to save his job – a win here would likely do that. I don’t think that is enough. Give me the Badgers.

UCF (-12.5) vs. Pitt

If you watched Pitt vs. Penn State last week, I needn’t elaborate. Pathetic game. Pitt has coasted by for years racking up wins against bad ACC teams. It seems like the talent well has begun to dry up a bit and it’s showing. UCF lives for Power 5 opponents. Quick supports: UCF’s offensive is explosive (600 ypg). Pitt’s is substantially less so (380 ypg). UCF’s defense is better (13th/37th). UCF’s turnover margin is better. I don’t care that it’s in Pittsburgh. Panther games don’t resemble Steeler games in anything but the venue. They could play on Mars, and I’d still take the Knights.

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