It looks like Arthur Blank is trending toward keeping Arthur Smith in Atlanta next year, but it doesn’t matter who the head coach is, the Falcons will be in the market for a new quarterback, and one may have just become available — Russell Wilson.
The Broncos’ playoff hopes were effectively dashed when they lost to the Patriots. Now, Denver is benching Wilson to preserve the possibility of a feasible split this offseason.
Sources: The #Broncos are, in fact, benching Russell Wilson for the final two games, preserving their financial flexibility for the offseason.
Jarrett Stidham starts. pic.twitter.com/8sh7ORek5Q
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 27, 2023
Wilson actually improved this season compared to 2022 under Nathanial Hackett. Through Week 16, he totaled 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions with a 98.0 passer rating. Granted, the Broncos’ offense as a whole has struggled, ranking No. 16 in scoring and No. 25 in yards per game.
To me, this is more about Wilson’s contract and Sean Payton’s desire to get his own guy in the building. The former Seahawks quarterback inked a $245 million deal and is set to count $34.5 million against the cap in 2024.
The contract currently runs through 2028 but is only guaranteed money through 2024; however, his entire 2025 salary ($37 million) will be guaranteed if he remains on the Broncos roster at the start of the next league year, which is March 17, per Over the Cap. So, if they were to move off of him, it would make sense to do so before then. Here are their options:
The first would be an outright release, which seems a little ridiculous given the financial ramifications.
A Pre March 17th release for Russell Wilson would mean $85M of dead cap ($39M cash) in 2024.
Designating him a Post June 1st release means a $35.4M hit in 2024 ($39M cash), & a $49.6M dead cap hit for 2025.
Either way – this would be an unprecedented release.
— Spotrac (@spotrac) December 27, 2023
Trading Wilson could be on the table, however. A trade before June 1 would result in an immediate loss of $32.6 million against the Broncos’ 2024 cap, but the most intriguing deal would be a post-June 1 trade. That scenario would save Denver $17 million, which is where the Falcons come in.
Atlanta is in a position with the salary cap to absorb the contract in a Russell Wilson trade. Moreover, the schematic fit passes the smell test. Wilson is still athletic enough at 35 years old to operate Arthur Smith’s offense, which seems more in line with his skill set than Sean Payton’s system.
If the Broncos prioritized money over draft picks, a post-June 1 trade would be the most beneficial. It would certainly take some draft capital in addition to Wilson to get him off the books in a salary dump of sorts. However, if Denver prefers to keep their draft picks after sending a haul for Wilson and Payton, cutting him could make sense as well.
In either scenario, trade or free agency, the Falcons make a lot of sense. This is in no way me advocating for a Russell Wilson trade, rather me just pointing out that it’s a legitimate option. If it was up to me, I’d still do whatever it takes to land Jayden Daniels.
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