Falcons at Texans
Where: NRG Stadium
Time: 1:00 Eastern Time
Line: Texans -5
The Falcons limp into October with a porous 1-3 record after back-to-back ugly losses to the Colts and Titans.
Meanwhile, their NFC South foes have started to put it together even without their starting quarterbacks. It’s rare to call the first game in October a must-win, but it’s challenging to look at it any other way for Atlanta this week. If they fall to 1-4, the playoffs will be nothing but a mere pipe dream, and Dan Quinn might find himself without a job before the season’s over.
Perhaps the most puzzling issue the Falcons have experienced thus far is their offensive output. This is a unit that features stars all around, but Dirk Koetter has wholly failed at putting together a quality gameplan. Atlanta is only averaging 17.5 points per contest, which is worse than the Kyler Murray led Arizona Cardinals. This is an offense that averaged nearly double that (33.8 points per game) when they went to the Super Bowl back in 2016, and the personnel was not much different. Hell, the offensive firepower might even be better now than it was back then. It’s unacceptable, and fans have the right to question whether Koetter should have ever been brought back to Atlanta.
Unfortunately, the task does not get any easier this week. The Falcons have to go back on the road – where they are winless in two tries – and face perhaps the best team in the AFC South. The Texans, led by Deshaun Watson, are 2-2 and coming off a discouraging home loss to the Panthers. It’s not unfathomable for the Falcons to pull something similar off, but look for Houston to come out much more prepared following a game they felt slipped away.
The Atlanta Falcons pass rush
The Falcons defense is near the top of the league in pass defense, allowing 215 yards per contest, but anybody who has watched this team knows that is nothing but fool’s gold. The Atlanta secondary has been below average, and the pass rush usually is non-existent. The Falcons only have five sacks the entire year, which is tied for the second-worst mark in the league. The Texans are known for handing sacks out like candy. Watson has already been walloped 18 times this season. A lot of that has to do with how long he holds onto the ball, but this Houston offensive line has some severe holes as well. If the Falcons cannot pressure Watson or force the ball out of his hands; it’s going to be a miserable day for Atlanta’s defense.
Get this offense back on track
Meanwhile, Atlanta’s passing offense ranks second in the league in yards per game – behind only the Chiefs. But like their pass defense, anybody who is watching this team knows those are nothing more than meaningless stats. Most of Matt Ryan’s yardage has been picked up in garbage time or when the Falcons are trailing by multiple scores. This Atlanta offense is one of the worst in the league, averaging 17.5 points per contest, which is absurd when considering all the talent on the field. Dirk Koetter has underwhelmed in his first four games as the offensive coordinator. It is genuinely embarrassing at this point. Something has to change and fast. How in the hell are the Cardinals scoring more points per game than the Falcons? How are Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, Calvin Ridley, and Mohamed Sanu putting up similar production to the Broncos, Bears, and Redskins?
I think it’s safe to admit: Steve Sarkisian was a scapegoat for many of the Falcons problems over the past two seasons.
Don’t let DeAndre Hopkins beat you
The Texans star receiver is off to a slow start. That’s likely because opposing defensive coordinators are keying in on him week in and week out. However, the Falcons love to let opponents’ star players beat them. They allowed Dalvin Cook to run all over them in Week 1. Thankfully, most of the Eagles’ primary offensive weapons were missing in Week 2, but Nelson Agholor still had a field day on Atlanta’s defense. Week 3 belonged to T.Y. Hilton, who the Falcons refused to shadow with Desmond Trufant. As a result, Hilton caught eight passes and a touchdown while being hobbled by an injury for most of the game. The Titans don’t have many stars, but everybody on their offense ate last week. Hopkins is due, and if the Falcons don’t make a concerted effort to taking him out of the gameplan, I have a feeling his breakout week may be around the corner.
Prediction
I haven’t been shy about bringing up Dan Quinn’s record against AFC opponents. The Falcons are 1-9 in their last ten cross-conference matchups, losing six straight, and the Texans are one of the better teams they will face all season. Combine that with how poorly Atlanta has looked in their first two road games; I don’t know how you can consciously pick the Falcons in this game. The NFL is a wonky league, where any team can win on any given week. Atlanta has all the talent in the world, so they can pull off the upset, but I’m not going to be the one betting on it. I see 1-4 ahead, as the Falcons lose their third straight game to an AFC South opponent.
Texans 34, Falcons 24
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