Though it is a complete simulation, the Pro Football Network Mock Draft recently spit out a situation where the Falcons traded the fourth overall pick to the Jets for the 23rd, 34th, and 107th picks in this year’s draft and a 2022 first-round selection.
Trading back and acquiring more draft capital will always be a possibility leading up to April’s draft, but this simulator puts pen to paper and shows fans exactly what kind of value the Falcons can get in a trade back scenario. The first few picks of the second round are always littered with first-round talent that somehow fell, so essentially the Falcons will get one more first-round prospect in 2021.
Atlanta would, in this simulation, be selecting four times in the first 100 picks — five if you count the 107th pick — where the highest concentration of talent is in the draft. The 2022 first-round pick would surely become a top ten pick, which adds immense value to this trade.
According to Drafttek’s value chart, the Falcons’ fourth overall pick has a draft capital value of 1800. The Jet’s 23rd overall pick (760) and 34th overall pick (560) combine for 1320 in value. The 2022 first-round pick will dictate which team wins this trade. I don’t think that Justin Fields and Ja’Marr Chase will turn New York around in one season, but how well the Jets perform will directly affect the Falcons.
If Fontenot sees the Jets as a bottom-ten team in the league, the trade would absolutely be worth it, and the draft chart backs it up. Going off of 2021’s value, the tenth pick (Cowboys) is worth 1300 on the chart — matching what the Falcons would receive in the trade in 2021 in terms of draft value.
If Fontenot sees Robert Saleh as the man to revive the Jets, I’m sure he would be hesitant because that 2022 first-round pick would lose value. A great example of this is the Khalil Mack trade a few years ago. The Raiders received the Bears’ 2019 and 2020 first-round picks, a sixth-round pick in 2019, and a third-round pick in 2020 for Mack, but the Packers were reportedly bidding for Mack’s services too.
Jon Gruden ended up going with Chicago because he thought that Green Bay had a better chance of making the playoffs, making the draft pick less valuable. In hindsight, he should’ve made the trade with the Packers because the Bears ended up with the 24th pick, and their NFC North rival ended up with the 12th pick in the 2019 NFL draft.
Hindsight is always 20/20; if you asked anyone two years ago who Gruden should’ve traded for, they would’ve said Chicago. Obviously, he could’ve gotten better value if he went the other route, and that is the exact dilemma Terry Fontenot is going to be in this offseason.