After stealing Game 1 in Philadelphia, the Hawks have fallen in the last two games, including a home loss in Atlanta on Friday. The 76ers are in control of the series as a result and now will look to take a commanding lead in Game 4. FanDuel lists the 76ers as three-point road favorites in the latest odds, while the over-under is set at 225.5.
The Hawks opened as underdogs at +165 to win this series, while Philly was the favorite at -215. After Game 1, odds shifted accordingly when Atlanta pulled off the upset in Philadelphia — 76ers were only -118 favorites. In Game 2, Joel Embiid played his best game to date in the playoffs, tallying a career-playoff-high 40 points to help the Sixers even the series, which greatly affected the odds. The Sixers were -230 favorites to take the series, and Atlanta was +190 underdogs — the best odds Philly had all series — after Game 2.
After dropping Game 3 in Atlanta, it’s do or die for the Hawks in what seems like an elimination game. As three-point underdogs in Game 4, the Hawks need to get back to what got them here. As a team, Atlanta has found success in producing above-average offensive efficiency with any lineup that does not feature Solomon Hill — scoring more than 1.21 points per possession with Hill off the court. It’s clear they aren’t protecting the ball or attacking the offensive boards nearly as much as they were in the regular season — a top-10 team in both turnover rate (13.3 percent) and offensive rebound rate (28.4 percent).
The Sixers are now heavy favorites set at -770 to win the series, while odds seem grim for the Hawks as +540 underdogs. The most likely outcome is the Sixers in a gentleman sweep at +115 odds, followed closely by Philly in six (+250) and seven (+360). If this young Hawks team goes down 3-1, it’ll be next to impossible to dig themselves out of that hole. Tonight’s game at State Farm Arena is a must-win for the good guys.
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