The speculation surrounding the Falcons’ fourth overall pick is vast and wildly entertaining. Arthur Blank recently confirmed Terry Fontenot and Arthur Smith have yet to make their minds up about which direction the team will go. That is because the 49ers have yet to reveal their plans for the third overall pick.
“It will likely be one of those three quarterbacks, but nobody knows which one the 49ers will take. Each one going at three could cause a different chain of events. If Jones goes third, Fontenot’s phone will be ringing off the hook for people willing to trade up for Lance or Fields. If Fields goes third, Fontenot will likely have less demand for his pick. Either way, Fontenot could select his preference of quarterback if they fall, or he could take Kyle Pitts, who will likely be the best player available regardless of what John Lynch decides to do with the third pick.”
But Vegas is in business for a reason; the house always wins. Betting lines in Sin City closely indicate realities, though they aren’t 100% in foretelling the future. As of April 21st, the favorite to go fourth overall is Kyle Pitts (-140), according to SBD. That doesn’t mean the Falcons are the favorites to land Pitts, but instead, it means Pitts is most likely going to whichever team is selecting fourth overall. Granted, these oddsmakers generate these lines with a pretty good idea of which team will be selecting at each pick, anticipating trades.
The closest odds to Pitts (-140) are Justin Fields (+175), Trey Lance (+230), and Mac Jones (+1500), but the former Alabama quarterback is the favorite (-150) of being the third overall pick. This is just more speculation, but it’s fun to see Vegas’ thoughts instead of Mel Kiper’s mock draft.
I anticipate this will be one of the most interesting drafts in the past few years, not only because the Falcons are slotted higher than they’ve been since selecting Matt Ryan, but also because of the unprecedented run on quarterbacks in the top ten that could occur. Yes, the fourth overall pick is garnering much of the attention, but these quarterbacks going early will cause some first-round talent to fall to Atlanta’s second-round pick, which I wrote about.