Braves are close to the top according to FanGraphs World Series odds

Braves Olson

The Braves have been the hottest team in the month of June, and as a result, they’ve cut the Mets’ lead in the NL East from 10.5 to just four. With 15 head-to-head games remaining with the boys from New York, Atlanta is in complete control of their destiny, and I think most baseball fans would agree they should be viewed as the favorites to win the NL East. We’ve seen this song and dance plenty of times, and the Braves have continuously come out on top.

I firmly believe Atlanta will run away with the division in the second half of the season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they found themselves in first place before the All-Star break, but FanGraphs isn’t quite there yet. They still give the Mets a 61.5% chance of winning the NL East, compared to the Braves at just 36.5%. However, FanGraphs does give the Braves nearly a 90% chance of making the playoffs, and they still view the Braves as the team most likely in the NL East to take home the Commissioner’s Trophy.

In fact, FanGraphs has the Braves with the third-best odds to win the World Series at 12.5%. The only teams they give better odds to are the Astros (14.4%) and Dodgers (12.8%). The Yankees, who currently have the best record in baseball by a wide margin, are listed at 12.2%, and the Mets are just in front of them at 12.3%.

I would be lying if I said I had any idea how these percentages are determined. Frankly, I’m not sure how FanGraphs gives the Mets significantly better odds than the Braves to win the NL East yet worse odds to win the World Series. I’m also not sure why they are down on the Yankees, who have clicked in all phases over the first half of the season. Regardless, it’s fun seeing a projection site high on the Braves after such a sluggish start.

Photo: Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire


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