Braves: FanGraphs playoff odds portray what should be a historically competitive NL East in 2021

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Other than perhaps the American League East, a division that’s projected to have four of its five teams finish with 80+ wins in 2021, the National League East is on a level of its own. Essentially all five clubs are expected to at least strive for contention this coming season, and all but one wield better than 10% odds at making the postseason (Miami, no matter how fun they look, just isn’t quite there yet). Folks, the NL East is set up to be quite the dogfight.

According to FanGraphs latest 2021 playoff odds, Atlanta is still trailing the Mets for best-odds of winning the division, sitting at 34.3% compared to New York’s 54.7%. The same goes for making the playoffs (68.6% vs. 81.7%) as well as each team’s chances of winning the World Series (5.9% vs. 10.1%). All in all, it’s obvious FanGraphs just prefers the Mets over the Braves in 2021, though with less than three wins of separation between the two club’s projected regular-season win total (91.6 for NYM / 88.9 for ATL), it certainly isn’t by much. Straight from the FanGraphs 2021 Playoff Odds page, here are the odds for the NL East:

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Regardless of how much weight you put into the industry-wide hype surrounding the Mets this winter, it is rather impressive that, despite the Braves doing VERY little so far this offseason, Atlanta is still right on New York’s heels. The difference in hot stove activity is especially stark between the two teams.

2020-21 offseason moves 

  • Mets — 8 FA signings / 5 trades / 3 waiver claims 
  • Braves — 4 FA signings / 3 waiver claims 

Obviously, the above moves don’t take into account what either team lost during the current offseason. However, it has been crystal clear that the Mets have been in all-out buy mode, while Anthopoulos and the Braves have mostly stayed pat.  Just imagine what this team would look like if the Braves decided to actually spend this winter.

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