This isn’t a position the Braves have been in often, despite winning five straight NL East titles. Most years, predictive models have Atlanta finishing second or third in the division, but after five years, it looks as if they are finally starting to come around. FanGraphs was high on the Braves last season, but they were just as high on the Mets. This year, it’s a totally different story.
According to FanGraphs, Atlanta is the overwhelming early favorite to win the World Series. Their model gives the Braves an astounding 16% chance at holding the Commissioner’s Trophy come November. That would be high at the end of the season, and it is especially high in April. They believe no other team has a greater than 10% chance of winning the World Series, with the Padres coming in second at 9.8%, followed by the Yankees at 8.7%.
Current World Series odds via FanGraphs:
1. Braves 16.0%
2. Padres 9.8%
3. Yankees 8.7%
4. Mets 8.1%
5. Astros 7.5%
6. Dodgers 7.2%
7. Rays 7.0%
8. Blue Jays 6.6%
9. Cardinals 5.2%
10. Twins 3.4%
11. Brewers 3.4%
12. Angels 2.8%
Anything stick out to you?
— MLB Metrics (@MLBMetrics) April 4, 2023
Digging a little deeper, FanGraphs gives the Braves a remarkable 93.6% chance of making the playoffs and 66.3% chance of winning their sixth consecutive NL East title. The Mets are behind the Braves with a 26.2% chance, and the Phillies, who are off to an 0-4 start, are given just a 5.9% chance of winning the division.
Now, I’m as a big of a Braves homer as they come. I’ve said throughout the offseason that I think they can win this division by 7+ games. The Phillies are littered with holes, despite the addition of Trea Turner, and the loss of Edwin Diaz severely hurts the Mets’ chances of winning the division. However, I’m not even sure I’m quite as high on the Braves as FanGraphs. It’s baseball, a sport where just about anything can happen, and we still have 158 games remaining. I’ll be interested to see how these odds shift as we maneuver through the summer months.
Photo: Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire
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