Braves: Updated odds that each free agent returns

Dansby Swanson free agent

MLB Free Agency has been sluggish across the entire league. None of the top guys have signed and not too much has changed, but we do have some rumors and reports surrounding some of the Braves free agents that have made me adjust my thoughts surrounding the likelihood each one of them returns.

Below I’ll list my previous predictions with the updated ones for each of the Braves free agents.

Ehire Adrianza

Original Prediction: 10%

New Prediction: 10%

Nothing’s changed here. I don’t think Adrianza is a major league caliber player, but the Braves might not have the money to upgrade the bench. Given his familiarity with the system, I would say there’s still a small chance he returns.

Robbie Grossman

Original Prediction: 25%

New Prediction: 40%

There have been no new rumors surrounding Grossman and the Braves, but they did initially say they would like to have him back, and I’m beginning to believe there’s a strong chance Atlanta goes with a bunch of platoon options in left field — like Adam Duvall, Eddie Rosario, Marcell Ozuna, and Robbie Grossman — and hopes a couple of them pan out instead of spending money upgrading the position.

Kenley Jansen

Original Prediction: 33%

New Prediction: 5%

Unlike many players on this list, we have heard a lot of news surrounding Kenley Jansen and his connection with the Giants. The sides are reportedly discussing a two-year deal, and if that’s the case, I’m ruling the Braves out on Jansen. The only reason I don’t put this at 0% is because there could be a small chance that Jansen enjoyed his time in Atlanta and would settle for a one-year contract to return.

Jesse Chavez

Original Prediction: 50%

New Prediction: 100%

Chavez is back for another year, and I couldn’t be happier.

Adam Duvall

Original Prediction: 51%

New Prediction: 51%

I’m still slightly above 50/50 that Duvall returns. If the Braves don’t want to spend too much money on filling the void in their outfield, bringing Duvall back makes too much sense for both sides.

Dansby Swanson

Original Prediction: 60%

New Prediction: 50%

There have been a lot of Dansby Swanson predictions and rumors, but none of which have contained much substance. Still, this is beginning to have the feel of last year’s Freddie Freeman situation. If the Braves were going to give him the number he wanted, why hasn’t he signed a contract yet? Now, he’s going to be courted by several teams with deep pockets. I would argue Swanson has an even bigger market than Freeman because so many teams have an opening at shortstop and there are only four premier options. If his goal is to get paid, he will, which means this could be the end of Swanson’s tenure in Atlanta.

Luke Jackson

Original Prediction: 85%

New Prediction: 50%

I was very confident the Braves would bring Jackson back on a small one-year pact after he missed all of last season with Tommy John, but this feels like something that would have happened already if there was genuine interest from both sides. It still might, but I’m more like 50/50 on Jackson returning to Atlanta’s bullpen next season.

Photo: Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire


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