Braves: Which pitchers should get the extra NLDS roster spots?

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David O’Brien let us know earlier 2 pitchers could be added to the 28 man NLDS roster.

 

David O’Brien let us know earlier 2 pitchers could be added to the 28 man NLDS roster.

 

There are a few obvious names that come to mind. Recently, Snitker has bucked the trend of “safe picks” like giving Pache a spot over Ender Inciarte and adding William Contreras. Even though those guys have a combined 14 at-bats and 5 hits, I love the move. Snitker’s previous MO would point to Chad Sobotka or Luke Jackson, but Huascar Ynoa and Bryse Wilson earned these spots with their late-season performance. Of course, Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb still loom. They’re a long shot after not pitching over the past 2 1/2 months, but I’ll consider them for this exercise. Let’s break down how each guy has fared against the Marlins.

 

vs Miami:

 

Newcomb (2019): 11 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 5 K

Foltynewicz: (Exhibition): 4.1 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

Wilson (2020): 9 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 K

Ynoa (2020): 3 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

Sobotka (2019): 2.1 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Jackson (2020): 8 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 2 K

 

Adding some additional context, Newk faced the Marlins 6 times in 2019. He gave up all of his damage with 2 ER in one start & 3 ER in one relief appearance. For the most part, he was effective out of the pen against the fish. Folty gave up 7 ER to MIA in 11.1 IP in 2019. Ironically, that last Miami start was the one before he went on his late-season tear — he didn’t give up over 3 ER in a game for the next 8 starts. Ynoa only has one career start against Miami — his last of 2020. Bryse Wilson was undoubtedly the most impressive outings of the group — his two starts in 2020 against Miami were two of his best. He still hasn’t ceded over 2 ER in an appearance in 2020. Luke Jackson had a sour end to 2020, and he was left off the Wild Card roster for a reason. Kudos to Snitker, it was time to cut bait. The Marlins owned Jackson; he’s out of the question for the NLDS. Sobotka didn’t face the Marlins in 2020, but his 12.27 ERA should eliminate him regardless.

So who gets the nod? I think the choice is clear, using Wilson as the fourth starter and Ynoa out of the pen is the best move. Sean Newcomb or Folty would be exciting, but after seeing no action since the first week of the season, it’s irresponsible. I still believe in Sean Newcomb, but his walk troubles reared their ugly heads in 2020. He had 13.2 innings in 2020, the last of which came on August 10th when he gave up 8 runs. His 4.5 BB/9 can’t be trusted against a dangerous and scrappy Marlins team. Miami takes pride in small ball, and taking walks is a big part of that. Folty hasn’t even been good against the Marlins, so why bother?

Looking at the splits, Miami hit lefties for a .775 OPS and righties for just .673. Max Fried is Max Fried, but sending out three righties in Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright, and Bryse Wilson — who dominated them in 2020 — is the correct move. Wilson wasn’t perfect, but Snitker has to put the best foot forward. I expect Snitker to give Wilson & Ynoa the call, no matter how enticing Folty and Newcomb are.

 

There are a few obvious names that come to mind. Recently, Snitker has bucked the trend of “safe picks” like giving Pache a spot over Ender Inciarte and adding William Contreras. Even though those guys have a combined 14 at-bats and 5 hits, I love the move. Snitker’s previous MO would point to Chad Sobotka or Luke Jackson, but Huascar Ynoa and Bryse Wilson earned these spots with their late-season performance. Of course, Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb still loom. They’re a long shot after not pitching over the past 2 1/2 months, but I’ll consider them for this exercise. Let’s break down how each guy has fared against the Marlins.

 

vs Miami:

 

Newcomb (2019): 11 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 5 K

Foltynewicz: (Exhibition): 4.1 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

Wilson (2020): 9 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 K

Ynoa (2020): 3 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

Sobotka (2019): 2.1 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Jackson (2020): 8 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 2 K

 

Adding some additional context, Newk faced the Marlins 6 times in 2019. He gave up all of his damage with 2 ER in one start & 3 ER in one relief appearance. For the most part, he was effective out of the pen against the fish. Folty gave up 7 ER to MIA in 11.1 IP in 2019. Ironically, that last Miami start was the one before he went on his late-season tear — he didn’t give up over 3 ER in a game for the next 8 starts. Ynoa only has one career start against Miami — his last of 2020. Bryse Wilson was undoubtedly the most impressive outings of the group — his two starts in 2020 against Miami were two of his best. He still hasn’t ceded over 2 ER in an appearance in 2020. Luke Jackson had a sour end to 2020, and he was left off the Wild Card roster for a reason. Kudos to Snitker, it was time to cut bait. The Marlins owned Jackson; he’s out of the question for the NLDS. Sobotka didn’t face the Marlins in 2020, but his 12.27 ERA should eliminate him regardless.

So who gets the nod? I think the choice is clear, using Wilson as the fourth starter and Ynoa out of the pen is the best move. Sean Newcomb or Folty would be exciting, but after seeing no action since the first week of the season, it’s irresponsible. I still believe in Sean Newcomb, but his walk troubles reared their ugly heads in 2020. He had 13.2 innings in 2020, the last of which came on August 10th when he gave up 8 runs. His 4.5 BB/9 can’t be trusted against a dangerous and scrappy Marlins team. Miami takes pride in small ball, and taking walks is a big part of that. Folty hasn’t even been good against the Marlins, so why bother?

Looking at the splits, Miami hit lefties for a .775 OPS and righties for just .673. Max Fried is Max Fried, but sending out three righties in Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright, and Bryse Wilson — who dominated them in 2020 — is the correct move. Wilson wasn’t perfect, but Snitker has to put the best foot forward. I expect Snitker to give Wilson & Ynoa the call, no matter how enticing Folty and Newcomb are.

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