Chase’s contract predictions for MLB’s top 25 free agents

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MLB free agency is underway, to a degree at least. For the next few hours, teams can only negotiate with their own free agents, which is why we haven’t seen much action from the top guys, outside of Edwin Diaz re-upping with the Mets on the largest deal ever for a reliever. Typically, I would say that was an overpay, but considering what Diaz did last season, it’s hard not to like it if you’re a fan of the Mets.

Things will remain mostly silent until the quiet period ends, which will occur on Thursday, November 10th, five days after the World Series. When that happens, chaos will ensue, and the Braves should be right in the middle of it. Here are my top 25 MLB free agents and my predictions for the contracts they will sign this offseason.

1. Carlos Correa

Correa is the best shortstop on the market. He owns a platinum glove, is equally as effective with the bat, has been a menace in the postseason, and is highly regarded as a leader. I expect him to set the market for shortstops.

Prediction: 10 years, $342 million

2. Aaron Judge

Age will likely prevent Judge from signing as long of a deal as Correa, but as far as AAV goes, I have Judge making the most money out of this entire free agent class.

Prediction: 8 years, $310 million

3. Trea Turner

Like Judge, Turner is a little older than Correa, but I expect him to earn around the same AAV in free agency this offseason. Turner’s contract will just be a hair shorter.

Prediction: 8 years, $260 million

4. Jacob deGrom

Because of his age and injury history, deGrom won’t demand close to as much as most of these top guys, but we are still talking about the most talented pitcher on the planet, and the Braves are apparently interested.

Prediction: 4 years, $160 million

5. Xander Bogaerts

Bogaerts’ defense leaves much to be desired at shortstop, but offensively, he’s right up there with Trea Turner. He should fetch over $200 million this offseason.

Prediction: 7 years, $205 million

6. Carlos Rodon

Rodon was quietly in the NL Cy Young conversation all season. Now, he gets to opt out and hit free agency in his prime, looking for the long-term contract he probably should have received last offseason. He’ll get it this winter.

Prediction: 5 years, $145 million

7. Dansby Swanson

The Braves own Dansby Swanson clocks in at #7. There are so many mixed reviews regarding what he will receive this offseason, but I think it will be somewhere in the $150-200 million range.

Predictions: 6 years, $160 million

8. Justin Verlander

Verlander is going to win the AL Cy Young at the age of 39. He should receive a similar contract to the one Max Scherzer got from the Mets last offseason.

Prediction: 2 years, $80 million

9. Brandon Nimmo

Nimmo isn’t the most well-known name across the country, but he’s a pest that plays winning baseball. He does a little bit of everything very well, and he is going to be among the most coveted free agents this winter.

Prediction: 6 years, $120 million

10. Willson Contreras

One of the best catchers in the game today, the older brother of William Contreras is set to cash in this offseason.

Prediction: 5 years, $105 million

11. Clayton Kershaw

He’s not the best pitcher on the planet anymore, but he’s still an All-Star caliber talent. Can’t see him going anywhere other than the Dodgers.

Prediction: 1 year, $22 million

12. Kodai Senga

Potentially the next great Japanese baseball player, Senga is looking to take his talents to the MLB for the prime of his career.

Prediction: 4 years, $75 million

13. Jose Abreau

Abreau’s next contract will take him until he’s nearly 40, but this is a guy who has been a perennial MVP candidate for the White Sox. Someone will hand him a multi-year deal.

Prediction: 3 years, $70 million

14. Chris Bassitt

The Mets have so many marquee free agents that it feels like Bassitt isn’t being talked about much, but he was terrific for them. General managers know how valuable he is. I expect his next contract to surprise some people.

Prediction: 4 years, $80 million

15. Martin Perez

Perez has largely been an underwhelming starting pitcher over the course of his career, but he broke out last season to the tune of 5.0 WAR and a 2.89 ERA.

Prediction: 3 years, $51 million

16. Andrew Benintendi

I’ve talked several times about Benintendi as a potential target for the Braves. It just depends if he will be willing to settle for a one or two-year deal. I see him getting more than that in free agency.

Prediction: 3 years, $41 million

17. Jameson Taillon

Taillon has battled through a lot to get to this point in his career. It hasn’t quite gone the way he planned, but someone is going to bet on his upside this offseason.

Prediction: 3 years, $50 million

18. Anthony Rizzo

Three Yankees in a row. Rizzo performed well in New York this season. He’s a leader with a ton of postseason experience. I expect him to receive a slightly more lucrative offer this winter.

Prediction: 3 years, $52 million

19. Tyler Anderson

Had an All-Star campaign with the Dodgers. Not sure he will ever replicate what he did this year, but he’s a solid mid-rotation option.

Prediction: 2 years, $30 million

20. Jurickson Profar

Pretty good outfielder with positional versatility. He should have several suitors, and the Braves could be one of them.

Prediction: 3 years, $39 million

21. Josh Bell

Because he’s a DH, he doesn’t rack up a bunch of WAR, but the man can straight rake.

Prediction: 2 years, $30 million

22. Mitch Haniger

Injuries have prevented Haniger from becoming the superstar that he’s capable of being. I expect him to accept a one-year, prove-it deal with a high AAV.

Prediction: 1 year, $18 million

23. Taijuan Walker

Walker had a ridiculous start to his Mets career, but he fell off a bit toward the end of the season. He’s not a frontline guy, but he is a solid option for the middle of a rotation.

Prediction: 3 years, $50 million

24. Kenley Jansen

Jansen may not be who he once was, but he remains one of the better closers in baseball, and he was at his best at the end of the season.

Prediction: 1 year, $15 million

25. Joc Pederson

Pederson is the reason I know WAR isn’t everything. The guy made an All-Star team, smacked 23 homers to go along with a career-high .353 OBP, and might be the best teammate in the league. Whoever signs him this offseason will be thrilled.

Prediction: 2 years, $16 million

Photo: Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire

 

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