Early line movement favors LSU over Ole Miss

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Just as everyone expected after Week 1, the LSU Tigers host Ole Miss this weekend with first place in the SEC West on the line. Ole Miss is currently undefeated and is leading the Western Division, but that can all change if the unranked Tigers can pull off the upset in Baton Rouge.

The line movement on this game has already been fishy. It opened up at LSU +1 and was quickly bet up to LSU +2.5 last night. However, things have shifted dramatically on Monday. A boatload of cash has come in on LSU and the line has almost completely flipped, with the Tigers now listed as 1.5-favorites.

Now, as an LSU fan, I can say I’ve been thoroughly impressed with Brian Kelly in year one. This team has no business competing for the SEC West, but they are right in the thick of things half way through the season with a legitimate chance at first place this weekend. Outside of a couple of miserable performances against Florida State and Tennessee, this team has far exceeded expectations.

With that being said, LSU still has no business being favorites over the #7 team in the country, which tells me this line is more about the sharps not believing in Ole Miss, which is much more understandable. The Rebels are undefeated, but a deeper look at their performances paints a different picture.

Ole Miss was in a tight game at home versus Tulsa. They barely escaped with a win over Kentucky in Oxford and were losing to Vanderbilt at halftime. The Rebels even allowed an anemic Auburn offense to come into their house and run up 34 points. Ole Miss doesn’t have an impressive win on their resumé, and LSU will undoubtedly be their stiffest competition to date.

The Tigers are coming off their best performance of the season — a 45-35 road win over Florida that they controlled from start to finish. And they return home to one of the most hostile environments in college football, where they were embarrassed against Tennessee their last time out. Something tells me they will look a little different this time around with everything on the line. I’m not saying the Tigers will pull it off, but there is a recipe here for a massive upset this weekend.

Photo: Kevin Langley/Icon Sportswire

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