Garrett Wilson is the favorite to take home the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award for the 2023 season, per Vegas odds. The Jets wideout has posted 1,014 yards and four touchdowns on 74 receptions. In terms of odds, the Seahawks Kenneth Walker III is considered the next closest to take home the award. Walker is set at +475, and Wilson has a commanding lead as a -200 favorite. And you have to go down all the way to the 10th-most likely to find Falcons rookie Tyler Allgeier at +20000 odds.
There are several running backs ahead of Allgeier based on odds, but there’s no reason the BYU product shouldn’t be in the same conversation as Walker. The Seahawks running back has posted 936 yards and nine touchdowns on 199 carries while adding 155 yards through the air on 26 receptions. Atlanta’s rookie runner has totaled 900 yards and three scores on 186 carries, adding 139 yards and one touchdown on 16 receptions.
In comparison, Walker has totaled 1,091 yards from scrimmage on 225 touches; Allgeier has 1,039 on 202 touches. The Falcons rookie actually has a more impressive average per touch, but the difference is Walker’s touchdown rate. The Falcons just recently turned to Allgeier as the lead back, but the team still oftentimes turns to Cordarrelle Patterson inside the redzone. The veteran has compiled seven rushing touchdowns this season compared to Algeier’s four total touchdowns.
Allgeier probably hasn’t had a Rookie of the Year campaign, but he undoubtedly deserves to be in the conversation, or at least have better odds than the 10th-best offensive player. Brian Robinson Jr., who has the sixth-best odds to win the award and significantly better odds than Allgeier, has posted 857 scrimmage yards on 214 touches. Allgeier has more impressive numbers across the board, yet Robinson has nearly 10x the chances of winning the OROY award… that’s unbelievable.
Isiah Pacheco and Dameon Pierce also have significantly better odds than Allgeier, both with similar stat lines as the Falcons rookie. I’m not sure why Vegas isn’t fond of Tyler Allgeier, but it’s clear he’s being undervalued in oddsmakers’ eyes. His numbers are as good as any rookie running back in football.
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Photographer: David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire
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