Falcons vs. Patriots odds, spread, and prediction

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In their only primetime game of the season, the Falcons will host the Patriots on Thursday Night Football to begin the Week 11 NFL schedule. New England is coming off a dominant 45-7 victory over the Browns; meanwhile, Atlanta suffered their worst loss in recent memory, falling 43-3 to the Cowboys. The entire Week 11 slate is chalked full of great games to get action on, and that starts in Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

  • Falcons vs. Patriots spread: New England -7/6.5 (depending on which outlet)
  • Falcons vs. Patriots over-under: 47.5 points
  • Falcons vs. Patriots money line: New England -300, Atlanta +240

The Patriots opened as 6.5-point road favorites, but that number has been bet up to 7 because the public is all over Bill Belichick’s squad. Over 75% of the public has backed the Patriots, and why wouldn’t they? They’re coming off a blowout win over Cleveland to extend their win streak to four, while Atlanta is coming off a blowout loss to Dallas. But I still think the value is on Atlanta; the line is inflated.

Sharps are more than likely on Atlanta too, but the only way to know that is to watch the betting markets. If sportsbooks move the line to favor the Patriots by -7.5, we will know where they stand. If the sharps are on the Falcons, that 7.5 figure will quickly be bet back down to 7, but if it stays, they’re likely some sharps on both sides.

The Falcons have a couple of critical injuries to look out for as Cordarrelle Patterson and Jaylinn Hawkins remain game-time decisions, both with ankle injuries. Patterson is obviously the name to watch because he’s so much more critical to the overall success of the team than Hawkins. Bill Belichick is notorious for his ability to create game plans to take away his opponent’s best player, which would be Kyle Pitts in this case. If the Falcons can’t get the ball to Pitts, this will be a long day if Russell Gage and company can’t help Matt Ryan out.

The Patriots will be content playing solid defense and running the ball to control the time of possession, while the Falcons will have to do anything they can to keep this close. New England is built to maintain leads with its physical brand of football. I still love to fade the public; hungry dog runs faster.




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