FanGraphs’ Braves playoff odds with 50 games left to play

NL East

Wednesday marked the 112th game of the season, meaning there are just 50 games left to play. The Braves’ latest sweep over the Red Sox put them 20 games over .500. That’s much better than Atlanta was this time last year; however, their standing in the division is even worse. The Braves currently sit seven games back of the red-hot Mets, who, according to FanGraphs, have an astounding 93% chance of winning the NL East.

The Braves, on the other hand, are given just a 6.3% chance to repeat as division champions for the fifth consecutive season. The odds are stacked against Atlanta. Nobody is playing better baseball than the Mets, and to make matters even worse, New York has arguably the easiest schedule of any team over the final month-and-a-half. If the Braves have any hope of gaining the necessary ground to catch up to the Mets, they’ll have to do it on their own. The two teams meet each other seven more times the rest of the way — all of which take place at Truist Park.

The good news is, even if the Braves do fail to win the division, FanGraphs still gives them a 97.8% chance to make the playoffs. With the expanded postseason, there are now three Wild Card spots. As of right now, the Braves stand atop of the Wild Card standings. They are 3.5 games ahead of the Phillies, 4.0 games ahead of the Padres, and 5.0 games ahead of the Brewers, who would not make the playoffs if the season ended today.

It’s been a tough couple of weeks for the Braves, as they’ve slowly fallen back into a hole in the division. But overall, the outlook is still very promising for this team. They’re in a position to have a home Wild Card series, and they should be much healthier by the time the postseason rolls around. 

Photo: Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire

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