FanGraphs doesn’t like the Braves chances in the NL East with 22 games left

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The Braves took a gut punch yesterday afternoon. After clawing their way back from four runs down with a five-run ninth inning, Kenley Jansen couldn’t shut the door, giving up two solo home runs to Julio Rodriguez and Eugenio Suarez. It’s only one game, but after the Mets won earlier in the day, it felt like a lot more than that. FanGraphs seems to think so as well; they don’t have much faith in the Braves turning this around again and passing the Mets.

Following a short-lived stint in first place, the Braves now sit 1.5 games back of New York in the NL East with 22 games to play. I would say the division is pretty much a toss-up. The Mets hold the lead, but the Braves have been in this situation far too many times and have consistently come through when it matters. These two teams also face for the last time at Truist Park, which is another advantage for the Braves. On the other hand, the Mets’ schedule is exceptionally favorable, facing just two teams (including the Braves) with a record above .500 the rest of the way.

For those reasons, FanGraphs gives New York a significant edge when it comes to winning the division. They currently believe the Mets have a 74.2% chance of clinching the NL East, while the Braves sit at 25.8%. They also give the Mets a 16.6% chance at winning the World Series, compared to the Braves at 12.5%.

I love keeping an eye on FanGraphs playoff odds as the season goes on, but they must always be taken with a grain of salt. These computers can’t comprehend the pressure on the Mets to put the division away. They also don’t understand just how hot the Braves are right now. The NL East is right there for the Braves to take; they just have to finish the season the way they’ve been playing for the last three-and-a-half months.

Photo: David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire

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