When it comes to projection models, they haven’t been so fond of the Braves in years past, consistently predicting they will finish second or third in the NL East. That’s not the case this year. Across the board, most every projection model is confident the Braves will make the postseason — none more so than FanGraphs, which believes Atlanta has an absurd 92.4% chance of making the playoffs in 2023.
Chances of making playoffs in 2023 (per FanGraphs):
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) February 20, 2023
As you can see, that’s the highest mark of any team in the league.
I might be the most optimistic Braves fan on the planet. I very rarely lose confidence in this team and believe down to my core that the 2023 squad will be even better than the team that won 101 games in 2022 and the team that won the World Series in 2021. With that being said, a 92.4% chance to make the postseason is startling, even for me.
Baseball is incredibly difficult to predict, and the Braves are losing the leader in their clubhouse for the second consecutive season. They also play in the toughest division in baseball. If an injury or two arises to some key pieces, it will be tough for them to win the NL East for the sixth consecutive season. This is a team with a target on its back. If they don’t get off to a much better start than they did last season, I’m not sure they will be able to recover again. I’m fine with them topping off these rankings, but saying they have a 92.4% chance of making the playoffs is a bit overzealous.
Photo: Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire
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