Odds that each Braves 2023 free agent returns

Dansby Swanson free agent

So far this offseason, I’ve listed every one of the Braves impending free agents, and I also ranked them by priority. If you missed those, you can follow the links below.

Now, it’s time to predict the odds that each one of Atlanta’s free agents will return.

Odds that each Braves 2023 free agent returns

Ehire Adrianza — 10%

Perhaps Adrianza returns as a bench piece. They clearly see something in him or they wouldn’t have brought him back via trade prior to the deadline, but I think Alex Anthopoulos can find a better option to take up one of the team’s final roster spots. Adrianza will also likely be looking for a new home where he can get more playing time.

Robbie Grossman — 25%

Grossman had some big moments for the Braves after they acquired him at the trade deadline. He’s a decent platoon option that hits lefties well, but I think Anthopoulos will be attempting to upgrade at left field. The three-way platoon of Grossman, Marcell Ozuna, and Eddie Rosario was incredibly ineffective. They need to get better out there if they want to make another World Series run. So while I’m not going to totally count out the Braves bringing back Grossman, it feels unlikely.

Kenley Jansen — 33%

The Braves have already said they would love to have Jansen back. He had an up-and-down first year in Atlanta, but for most of the season, he was one of the better closers in baseball. Like most free agency discussions, it’s all going to come down to money. With Raisel Iglesias in the fold, I don’t see the Braves handing Jansen another $16 million for next season. Perhaps I’m wrong, especially if it is a one-year deal, but there’s a high chance we’ve seen the last of Jansen in a Braves uniform.

Jesse Chavez — 50%

The Braves keep dumping Jesse Chavez, but he always comes back. At a certain point, you’d almost think he would feel disrespected, but it’s evident both sides have a lot of respect for each other. With Tyler Matzek lost for next season and Kenley Jansen possibly out the door, the Braves have some open spots to fill in the bullpen. Providing Chavez wants to keep pitching, I could see him back in Atlanta on a one-year deal.

Adam Duvall — 51%

One aspect that wasn’t talked about enough this season was the loss of Adam Duvall. He’s been a difference-making bat for the Braves and was just starting to get hot before going down for the season with a wrist injury. If Anthopoulos doesn’t want to spend big money on a free-agent left fielder, bringing back Duvall on a one-year contract makes a lot of sense.

Dansby Swanson — 60%

I would love for this number to be higher, but the reality is Swanson very well could be out the door this winter. Someone is going to back up the Brinks truck for his services, and the Braves may not feel comfortable giving him such a lucrative contract after just one season of elite play. Instead, Atlanta could look elsewhere in free agency for a more proven option like Carlos Correa. I still think there’s a high chance of Swanson returning, but the door is open to all possibilities.

Luke Jackson — 85%

Of all the Braves pending free agents, Luke Jackson is the one I am most confident will return. He’s such a critical piece to the clubhouse and is coming off Tommy John surgery. It feels like he loves it in Atlanta, so inking him to a one-year contract to prove himself after he missed all of last season makes sense for both sides.

Photo: Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire

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