SportsTalkATL’s College Football Gambling Locks: Week 11

cfm1909131061 georgia vs arkstate

Turner Skehan (18-11-2)

UGA (16.5) vs. Missouri

My general rule of thumb: when a good team loses an embarrassing game, they are likely to route the next few foes. Georgia can’t take a chance of losing another game in the East. Their defense is stout. Defense shows up week-over-week, year-over-year. I expect them to come damn near shutting out Missouri and put up some points. Fromm has been underwhelming, Georgia’s o-line has been a bit lackluster, their wide-outs haven’t wet my panties, but I expect them to roll Missouri. Those things considered, their running game is strong and explosive, and I think Missouri can’t line up skill-for-skill. Kelly Bryant still isn’t more than a step better than putting your running back at QB, and Georgia gets after the QB. Bulldogs by a million.

Oklahoma (-14.5) vs. Iowa State

Follow the same rule as mentioned above. Jalen is playing at a high level, and they know their season depends on it. It’s at home, and Oklahoma is coming off a bye week. Riley is likely to redeem a bad loss in Manhattan by dishing out a shellacking in Norman. Unfortunately, Iowa State will be the ass getting spanked. Lay the points.

Illinois vs. Michigan State over 45

I think the Illinois D is middle of the road save for one respect – they force turnovers. This can keep them in games and produce some pretty good field possession. I trust their run game, and I expect this one to sneak over. Michigan State has a good D (which is why the line is running so low), but they’ve shown some weakness. Both teams need the win for bowl eligibility. Pull the trigger. Take the over.

Alabama (-6.5) vs. LSU

The biggest lock on them all. Take the Tide. Call your bookie. Lever yourself. Mortgage your future. I can smell the steak your future, richer, smarter, more well-dressed, and confident self will order with the winnings. Tide -6.5.

Jake Gordon (15-16)

LSU Alabama first half under 31.5

I think this game ends up getting into the 30s, but these big-time matchups usually come with a feeling out phase. I also think the athletes on both defenses are underrated, and you can bet they will come into this one with a chip on their shoulder. Take the under in the first half.

App State (+5.5) at South Carolina

I’m not going to discount what App State did all season after one bad game. I don’t think South Carolina is going to get caught sleeping here; I just think State is the better team. They will rebound nicely on the road and possibly pull the outright upset.

Clemson (-32.5) at NC State

That’s a huge line, but the Tigers are going to have all the motivation in the world after the playoff committee left them out of the top four. Expect a route in Raleigh.

Harrison Coburn (16-17)

Wake Forrest (2.5) at Virginia Tech

I know Virginia Tech gave Notre Dame a scare, but that was more of a mark on how bad Notre Dame really is. You also have the potential for a letdown game here, and if you’ve followed these picks throughout the season, you know I have a love affair with the Deamon Deacons, who are now 7-1 on the year.

LSU vs. Alabama over 62.5

Pound the over guys. These are the two best passing offenses in the country, and neither of their defenses has a very good pass rush. This is going to look much more like a Big 12 matchup than we are used to seeing.

UGA (-16.5) vs. Missouri

We saw UGA at their best last weekend, as the passing offense came to life. I believe they have the best defense in the country and will be able to shut down the Tigers’ offense totally. I’m not in love with Georgia’s offense after one game, but they should be able to put enough points up at home to cover the spread.

Notre Dame (-8) at Duke

I’m going for pure value here. Notre Dame – talent-wise – is far better than Duke. Ian Book gets back on track, and the Irish easily cover.

Oklahoma (-14.5) at Iowa State

The Sooners have to be in prove-it mode for the remainder of the season. If they want to get into the College Football playoff, not only do they have to win, but they have to beat the breaks off of their weak schedule. They start that this weekend at home against Iowa State.

Chase Irle (14-18-2)

Wisconsin (-9.5) vs. Iowa

Over the past few weeks, I have slowly fallen into the abyss, but it’s not over yet, and I’m due for a little run. The Badgers have screwed me out of some money the last two times I bet on them, but I like them in this spot at home after a couple of rough weeks. Don’t forget – the team that won by 30+ against Michigan is still in there somewhere. I expect them to look their best this weekend, which should result in a double-digit win.

Clemson (32.5) at NC State

This is a silly spread for a conference road game, but I’m buying the Tigers. They might be the best team in the country, despite all the disrespect they have received, and I think they are going to roll over the Wolfpack with ease in a statement game.

Tennesse (+1) at Kentucky

The line says you can flip a coin and pick the winner. I’ll go with the hot team in Tennesee that seems to have found a groove under Jeremy Pruitt. I like them to beat an injury-riddled Kentucky squad.

Penn State (-6.5) at Minnesota

I like the Nittany Lions here. I don’t think Penn State is the number four team in the country, but they are in the top ten, which is far better than Minnesota. The Nittany Lions cruise on the road, setting up a top-three matchup in Columbus next week.

Notre Dame (-8) at Duke

Nothing to see here, just doubling down on my failed pick from last week.



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