The Vegas season totals are open to the public, and the Falcons over/under for wins is currently set at 7.5. Like you probably think, that seems pretty low to me, but after back-to-back 7-9 seasons, and with as many holes as the team still has, it’s a fair number. However, the public doesn’t appear to think so. According to William Hill Sportsbooks, the Falcons over 7.5 wins is the most bet on total in the whole league, with 83% of the tickets believing Atlanta will overachieve.
Bettors at William Hill sportsbooks think the best early values on NFL win totals are Falcons (over 7.5 wins), Jets (over 6.5 wins), Ravens (under 11.5 wins) and Packers (under 10 wins). pic.twitter.com/4iHsNDRqyn
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) March 27, 2020
Now, if you’re not an addictive gambler (like myself), you might think this is a good thing — but really — it’s the exact opposite. Vegas generally feasts when a bet is so one-sided; that’s how they make their money, and the term “Vegas knows” exists for a reason. Anytime a number looks too good to be true, that’s usually because it is.
The Falcons are poised to have one of the best offenses in the league. On paper, they have the star power to match up with any team. However, they lack depth in a multitude of areas and are extremely weak in the trenches (where games are won). I do think Atlanta has a chance to surpass this number by a few games, but a lot of it is going to have to do with how they address the draft next month. If they don’t hit on their top two picks, it could be another somber year for Falcons fans.