What are the Braves playoff odds according to FanGraphs?

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A week ago, this would be a topic I would have avoided, but the Braves have reeled off eight straight wins, and the division-leading Mets are now in their sights. Prior to their winning streak, New York led the NL East by a remarkable 10.5 games. The Mets’ lead is now just 6.5, and it feels like it could be a lot less ten days from now with the way the schedule shakes out.

But it’s not just the Mets that the Braves have gained ground on over this stretch. They are now tied with the Giants for the third and final Wild Card spot in the National League. Overall, it’s been a productive start to June for the defending world champions, and their playoff odds have increased significantly because of it.

FanGraphs currently gives the Braves a 79% chance to make the postseason, up almost 25% from a week ago. And they have a 29.2% chance of winning the NL East, which is almost double what they were a week ago.

Projection systems are always fun to look at, but they should also be taken with a grain of salt. FanGraphs is one of the few that has been consistently high on the Braves; still, I don’t think there’s much of a chance at all that the Braves miss out on October baseball, and it certainly isn’t more than 20%. I also believe the Mets know what’s coming. A New York collapse is like rain; it’s inevitable. The champs are here.

Photo: David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire


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