What would a Falcons trade up to Bears’ #1 pick look like?

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The Bears have an interesting dilemma on their hands. Ryan Poles must decide what to do with the highly sought-after #1 pick. He could standpat and draft the best defender on the board — Will Anderson or Jalen Carter. The Bears GM could also auction off the selection to the highest bidder to stock an arsenal of draft capital for their rebuild. Hell, Poles could take Bryce Young and trade Justin Fields. There’s no telling what Chicago will do, but the Falcons should inquire about the potential price of trading up.

Some fans might not be willing to give up significant assets to acquire the rights to that pick, but when an opportunity arises to draft a franchise quarterback, organizations have to act.

The Falcons haven’t eluded to their intentions with the position this offseason. Desmond Ridder impressed, showing poise and steady growth in each outing. However, the former third-round pick certainly hasn’t done enough to just be given the starting job in 2023 without competition, let alone the franchise quarterback title.

It’s the most challenging position in sports to play, which is why so many teams get their evaluations wrong year after year. When a situation comes about for the Falcons to potentially land a talent like this quarterback class has, they have to act, regardless of Desmond Ridder’s standing.

For me, that player is Bryce Young. The Alabama product is worth mortgaging your future for; he possesses elite traits that don’t come around too often. Young can make any throw on the field; his accuracy is impressive at all three levels, and his playmaking ability allows him to extend plays. His intangibles might be even more exciting. Bryce Young shows poise, leadership, confidence, etc… everything a franchise wants in its quarterback. He is a can’t-miss prospect to me.

The only reason anyone is hesitant to label him among the greatest quarterback prospects to enter the draft is his size. Young stands 6 feet, 194 pounds. It’s a legitimate concern for anyone not named Bryce Young. He has an innate ability to feel pressure and to escape the pocket; it’s like a sixth sense. Moreover, when he escapes the pocket, he doesn’t take unnecessary hits.

I couldn’t be less worried about that part of Young’s evaluation. So, what would it take for the Bears to trade the #1 pick to the Falcons?

Classic Jimmy Johnson Valuation Model is the easiest way to project what a potential trade would look like. The Falcons will likely be competing with the Texans, Colts, Panthers, and Raiders for the rights to that selection if Chicago offers it off. Using that model, the Falcons wouldn’t have to give up as much as you might think:

Falcons get: #1 (3000 points)
Bears get: #8 (1400 points), #44 (480 points), 1st in 2024 (1000 points), and 3rd in 2023 (190 points)

It would end up being two first-rounders, a second and third-round pick for Bryce Young. I would do that in a heartbeat. Unfortunately, I don’t think that deal gets it done. The Bears would be fools to move out of reach of Jalen Carter and Will Anderson if they choose to roll with Justin Fields.

Ideally, the Bears trade down the Texans’ #2 pick for a haul of draft picks, then parlay the #2 pick into another trade with the Colts’ #4 pick. Chicago would double its compensation and have a ton of assets to use to build around Justin Fields. However, the Bears have long been a dysfunctional organization; I doubt they get this one right, which could provide an opportunity for the Falcons to land Bryce Young.

Photographer: Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire

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