According to FanGraphs, what are the Braves playoff odds with 38 games left?

Braves FanGraphs Acuna

Following last night’s win and the Mets loss, the Braves have trimmed the division lead to just three games in the NL East. Two weeks ago, I talked about the Braves playoff odds according to FanGraphs with 50 games left to play. At the time, FanGraphs only gave the Braves a 6.3% chance of catching the Mets and winning the NL East for the fifth consecutive season. It’s safe to say that number has changed, but by how much?

Honestly, not as much as I would have thought. The Braves current playoff odds are at 99.9% — up from 97.8% two weeks ago. Atlanta will make the playoffs; it’s just a matter of seeding. FanGraphs still sees the Mets as heavy favorites to take home the NL East at 82.9%, while they give the Braves just 17% to do so.

This is where I think analytics are flawed. FanGraphs does a fantastic job at what they do, but they can’t measure the experience and poise the Braves have shown every season around this time of year. Three games is nothing, especially for the team that has been the best in baseball since June 1st. The Mets have been terrific all season; they deserve respect, and their schedule is extremely favorable down the stretch. However, the Braves are rolling and have been in this situation several times before. You can’t tell me they have less than a 20% chance to win the NL East.

Photo: David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire


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