Odds that each Braves free agent returns

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Yesterday, I ranked the seven Braves free agents by priority. So today, I’ll provide percentage odds for each player based on the probability of returning to Atlanta. However, I will also be including a couple of candidates that have opted out of their mutual options — Adam Duvall and Joc Pederson.

Drew Smyly

Odds of returning: 0%

With Charlie Morton back and several youngsters about ready to be permanent major-leaguers, the need for another starter to fill in at the back-end is much lower than it was last year. Plus, the Braves need to save some money to bring back much higher priority free agents.

Ehire Adrianza

Odds of returning: 75%

I don’t see there being a huge market for Adrianza this offseason, and why wouldn’t he want to come back to the Braves, where he would have an opportunity to make the roster and compete for another World Series.

Chris Martin

Odds of returning: 20%

On a $1-2 million contract for one season, I wouldn’t mind seeing Martin return. However, it might be in the best interest for both sides to part ways.

Jesse Chavez

Odds of returning: 75%

Unless Chavez decides to retire, the Braves should be keen on re-signing him. He was great for Atlanta this season, and the Braves still need to revamp their bullpen some. The back-end was fantastic in the playoffs, but the rest remains shaky. Bringing back Chavez on the cheap is a no-brainer as far as I’m concerned.

Joc Pederson

Odds of returning: 15%

Without Joc, the Braves don’t win the World Series. That’s an indisputable fact; in reality, they probably don’t even make the playoffs. Pederson revived the clubhouse, and from the day he arrived, everything changed. But for a few reasons, I’m hesitant about him returning next season. With Pederson opting out, he’s looking for one of two things, or perhaps both — more money and more playing time. For the Braves, he’d be strictly a platoon player, and Alex Anthopoulos won’t be paying a platoon player $10+ million. Braves Country will always love Joc, but I don’t think he’s back in Atlanta next season.

Adam Duvall

Odds of returning: 100%

The Braves let Adam Duvall walk and immediately regretted it. Thankfully, they could get him back at the trade deadline, or they might not even have made the playoffs. Duvall opted out of his side of the team option, but he has one year of arbitration remaining. MLB Trade Rumors projects his arb number to be just over $9 million, which the Braves should have no problem ponying up.

Eddie Rosario

Odds of returning: 40%

Rosario was terrific for the Braves ever since coming off the IL and even won the NLCS MVP. However, because of that, several teams will be interested in him this offseason. If he gets a multi-year deal, I doubt the Braves match.

Jorge Soler

Odds of returning: 65%

Due to his incredible performance since joining the Braves, it’s possible he prices himself out of what Alex Anthopoulos is willing to pay. However, I believe he will be the Braves’ top priority of the unrestricted free agents that aren’t named Freddie Freeman. He’s perfect for the DH role, and I think the Braves coaching staff believes his adjustments are sustainable, which is scary to think about for the rest of the National League.

Freddie Freeman

Odds of returning: 90%

I was thinking about going 100%, but I would be lying to you if I said there wasn’t any chance he ends up playing for another team. I believe those odds are minuscule, but a team may blow him away with an offer that he can’t refuse. With that being said, Freeman will be a Brave for the foreseeable future.

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