Predicting the 2023 stats of each Braves player — Charlie Morton

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This continues my series where I predict the 2023 stats of each Braves player, moving on to the veteran of the team, Charlie Morton. If you missed any of the previous editions of this series, follow the links below.

Charlie Morton 2023 Stat Predictions

Charlie Morton had a wonky 2022. He started off the season terribly but ended it looking like the guy who had been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last five years. Overall, his numbers weren’t great. He finished with a 4.34 ERA and 4.24 FIP, accruing 1.5 fWAR. That wasn’t worth the $20 million the Braves paid him, but despite that, the front office decided to hand him another $20 million extension for the 2023 season. The Braves still see the potential for Morton to be a leader on this staff, and I expect him to bounce back in a big way.

As far as the eye test, Morton flashed with flying colors. His fastball velocity sat in the mid to high-90s, and his curveball was as filthy as ever. Morton struck out nearly 30% of the batters he faced, resulting in a 10.7 K/9 innings. Really the only difference between who he was last year and who he was in his first season with the Braves was the home runs.

Morton gave up a staggering amount of long balls last season (1.47 per nine innings). That’s nearly double the rate that he surrendered a home run in 2021 (0.78 per nine innings). In fact, Morton has never given up more than 1.0 home runs per nine innings over a full season in his entire career outside of 2022. That number should come down considerably in 2023, and if that happens, he will once again be an All-Star caliber pitcher. A lot of Braves fans don’t realize just how good Charlie Morton is, and I’m counting on him being one of the three best pitchers on this staff next year.

Charlie Morton 2023 Stat Predictions: 15-9, 3.37 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 10.4 K/9, 4.2 fWAR

David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire

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